Once Thailand's casino market matures, it may produce yearly gross gaming revenue (GGR) surpassing that of Singapore, positioning the nation to become the third-largest gaming jurisdiction globally. 

This is the perspective of Citi analysts George Choi, Preenapa Detchsri, and Timothy Chau, who stated in a recent report that once Thailand completely develops its casino industry, the nation might achieve annual GGR of $9.1 billion. That would suffice to surpass Singapore for the third position on the worldwide ranking, following only Macau and Las Vegas. Thailand has not formally sanctioned integrated resorts yet, but lawmakers are working to accelerate the associated legislation.

"Deputy Finance Minister Julapun Amornvivat recently reiterated the Thai government’s intention to table a revised draft law … to the cabinet by end-2024. When the council of state approved the bill … the race for licences in Thailand will quickly commence,” according to Citi,

The $9.1 billion GGR prediction relies on Thailand granting approval for a minimum of five gaming licenses to commence — two in Bangkok and one each in Pattaya, Phuket, and Chiang Mai. 

Singapore/Thailand Not a Direct Comparison 

If Thailand ultimately achieves or surpasses the Citi projection and ascends to the third position among worldwide casino markets, it would be a remarkable achievement, especially given that the Southeast Asian country currently lacks regulated gaming establishments. 

Nonetheless, the comparisons with Singapore can be seen as overreaches. The city-state contains only two integrated resorts — Marina Bay Sands by Las Vegas Sands and Resorts World Sentosa by Genting — and this situation is unlikely to change soon, as these operators have duopoly protection in place for the next thirty years. 

Singapore is satisfied with only two gaming facilities, and officials have indicated no plans to allow an increase in that count in the near future. Therefore, if Thailand initiates its casino gaming venture with four or five locations, it is logical to anticipate that it would swiftly exceed Singapore in GGR due to having a greater number of casinos. 

Singapore achieved $5.11 billion in GGR in 2023 — marking its strongest year in that metric since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. Additionally, Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa rank among the most lucrative integrated resorts globally. 

Thailand's Captivating Casino Industry 

As new, significant growth opportunities are scarce in the global gaming industry, Thailand presents an attractive market for operators for various reasons. These aspects encompass the nation's position as a frontrunner in Southeast Asian tourism and suggested measures designed to attract major players in the gaming industry. 

Analysts view Thailand's dedication to efficiency as akin to Singapore's two decades back, suggesting that the initial casino hotels in Thailand may launch in five or six years, while the proposed gaming tax rate of 17% is considered beneficial for operators’ profits. 

“In light of the lower gaming tax rate at 17 percent and the lower operating expenses — mostly wages and utilities — versus Singapore, we believe earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin could reach 40 percent to 50 percent, which implies Thailand could see industry EBITDA of approximately $4.1 billion (annually),” added the Citi analysts.